Scott MacDonald
An already interesting Florida Panthers offseason is about to head into its most active stretch.
The NHL’s free agency period opens Oct. 9 at noon and according to Puckpedia.com, the Panthers have 12 NHLers currently under contract.
That leaves a lot of work — and some big decisions — for new GM Bill Zito.
With an estimated cap hit of roughly $59.8 million for next season’s Panthers — and with the NHL salary capped at $81.5 million — Florida has close to $22 million to work even after factoring in retained money, buyouts and Roberto Luongo’s early retirement recapture penalty.
The Panthers have five unrestricted free agents. Will they stay or will they go? Should they stay or should they go?
We’ll break it down player by player.
Today: Evgenii Dadonov
Next Up: Mark Pysyk
A 2007 third-round pick of the Florida Panthers, Evgenii Dadonov took some time until he found his stride in the NHL. After a below-average first three seasons in North America, Dadonov returned to his homeland of Russia, where he spent five years really developing. When he returned to the Panthers on a three-year deal in 2017, Dadonov looked like a completely different player. Since his return, he’s finished top-five in scoring on the Panthers in each of his last three seasons.
Now a 31-year-old unrestricted free agent, Dadonov could be seeking a bit of a raise given his top-line role and point production over his last few years.
The Good
Over the last three seasons, only one Panther has scored more goals — exactly one more goal — than Dadonov has, and that’s Aleksander Barkov. Dadonov is also third in points in that span. Overall in his last three seasons, Dadonov is sixth in goals scored among NHL right wings and he’s 10th in points scored.
If it weren’t for the season’s pause back in March, there’s no doubt Dadonov would’ve broken his career-best goals record of 28. Just given his offensive output on the top line, Dadonov more than deserves a raise from his current $4 million AAV.
Analytics-wise, as one might imagine, Dadonov does just fine. He actually led the entire Panthers roster with a pretty phenomenal 60.30 percent CorsiFor at all strengths. Dadonov also led Florida in shot differential at 59.09 percent (793 shots for while he’s on the ice to 549 shots against).
The Bad
There’s really not much to not like about Dadonov. For GM Bill Zito, it’s really going to be about keeping his salary under control. Dadonov and his agent will have plenty of leverage for a large contract extension, given the 31-year-old winger is among the league’s top-10 at his position.
The Bottom Line
Given the NHL’s top-10 right wings over the last three seasons all make somewhere between $6.75 million (Patrik Laine) and $10.893 million (Mitch Marner), it’s reasonable to assume Dadonov and his agent could ask for something in that range. Unfortunately for Dadonov, all the aforementioned players signed contracts pre-COVID-19 and before the flat salary cap laid out in the new CBA.
The Panthers have plenty of cap space to work with at the moment, but have only 12 players under contract for the 2020-21 season. That said, in theory, Zito could afford to keep Dadonov, but as a UFA he’s free to chase a larger paycheck elsewhere. Given the Panthers are one of the most cap flexible teams this offseason, Dadonov’s choices for where to get more money are potentially reserved for only a handful of other NHL franchises.
I’d say Evgenii Dadonov commands somewhere in the $6-7.5 million AAV range, but could get more elsewhere if he’s offered…or if another team could afford taking on that contract.
Projected Contract: 5 years, $6.5 million AAV