NHL Odds and Trends: Stanley Cup Final Rematch

The Florida Panthers renew hostilities tonight with their 2024 Stanley Cup Final foe, the Edmonton Oilers. According to the current FanDuel NHL odds, The Oilers are -126 home favorites in this revenge spot with an implied probability of 55.75%.

Connor McDavid and company are out for revenge, but the Panthers have other concerns, like navigating their current goal-scoring drought.

Are the Panthers worthy moneyline dogs tonight? Here are some trends and storylines to consider.

Winter in South Florida

The Panthers have scored only one goal during the previous three games. They beat the Seattle Kraken in a 2-1 SO win a week ago, and put up two goose eggs against the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames.

Why are the Panthers so cold?

The players believe they’re getting the shots but not challenging opposition goalies with a sustained net-front presence. They have a point. Florida peppered Calgary goaltender Dustin Wolf with 32 shots last Saturday to no avail.

Panthers coach Paul Maurice isn’t concerned about his team’s lack of firepower. He’s more focused on his team’s inability to defend the opposition’s rush, and he said so in his typical, blunt fashion.

“Our rush defense sucks,” Maurice said after the Calgary loss.

Oilers Burning Blue

After a sluggish early season, the Edmonton Oilers have found their groove. They are on a 12-3-1 stretch heading into tonight’s game.

Given the Oilers’ superstar talent, one would think Connor McDavid sparked the current fire. Yes, McDavid has been great—scoring 31 points during this 16-game tear.

Edmonton’s renewed commitment to team defense is most impressive. During this current run, the Oilers have allowed only 2.44 goals and killed 88.2% of their penalties.

Edmonton goalie Stuart Skinner has been a brick wall behind the disciplined Oilers. In his previous six games, Skinner’s posted a 1.66 goals against average.

Bob to the Rescue?

Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been his best this season, with a mediocre .892% SV and 2.87 GAA. He has to step up and steal a game or two to stop the current skid.

Winning is contagious is a cliche, but our oft-repeated phrases contain a kernel of truth. Bob must summon his Conn Smythe-level play while the Panthers struggle to score.

Tough Night in Edmonton

A huge culprit of the Panthers’ current offensive struggle is their lack of power play success. During this current cold streak, the Cats’ man-advantage unit has scored only once on 12 attempts.

The Panthers’ PP will likely have a hard time tonight against the Oilers’ smothering penalty kill.

Florida is still a championship-caliber team, but I don’t like them tonight. I expect goals to be at a premium, making under 5.5 a live play, along with the Oilers to win at a decent moneyline price of -126.